Project: Methodology for Uncertainty Analysis of Capacity Estimates and Leakage Potential for Geologic Storage in Saline Aquifers

Research Team: Yamama Raza, Mike Szulczewski, Howard Herzog, Mort Webster and Ruben Juanes

Sponsors: Carbon Sequestration Initiative, McClelland Fund

Summary:
This project uses a residual trapping model on a basin scale for geologic storage in saline aquifers to analyze the variability in estimates that are obtained for capacity and leakage of carbon dioxide that could be potentially stored in saline aquifers.  These issues are of importance as the permitting requirements that are expected to be put into place for characterization of a site before it is selected for geologic survey includes storage capacity, and analysis of leakage potential.  The heterogeneity of the subsurface leads to any estimate based on a limited amount of data being affected by variability, and by using tools such as monte carlo analysis with available data, the researchers intend to develop a method that can be applied to a selected site for uncertainty analysis.

Specifically, looking at the variability in geologic and rock/fluid properties of the rocks in the sites that may be candidates to store large amounts of CO2, the work focuses on identifying:

• The scale of the variability of any estimates of how much CO2 can be stored

• The parameters that contribute the most to the variability in these estimates

• The effects of potential faults through which leakage can occur which were previously unidentified, and looking at the quantity of CO2 that escapes as well as the time scale at which CO2 escapes

Publications:
Raza, Y., "Uncertainty Analysis of Capacity Estimates and Leakage Potential for Geologic Storage of Carbon Dioxide in Saline Aquifers," M.I.T. Masters Thesis, May (2009). <PDF>